This projection is lower than the country’s projected GDP growth of 7.09 per cent for 2024, but aligns with its target for 2025, which ranges from 6.5 per cent to 8 per cent.
Leader of AMRO’s Regional Surveillance Group,Allen Ng, highlighted how Việt Nam’s growth is supported by its strong export performance and proactive economic policies.
“Despite global trade tensions, Việt Nam has shown resilience by maintaining a robust export sector. Authorities remain vigilant, implementing supportive measures to sustain economic momentum into 2025,” Ng toldViệt Nam News.
Exports have been a significant growth driver, with Việt Nam leveraging its diversified trade relationships and competitive labour market. Additionally, investments in high-tech manufacturing and digitalisation have boosted productivity and value, ensuring Việt Nam remains competitive amidshifting global supply chains.
In 2024, the country’s exports grew by 14.3 per cent to US$405.53 billion, while imports rose by 16.7 per cent to $380.76 billion. Việt Nam maintained a trade surplus of nearly $25 billion for the ninth consecutive year.
Việt Nam’s 6.5 per cent growth projectionsurpasses the regional average, reflecting its recovery from the pandemic. In comparison, Việt Nam’s outlook is stronger than its regional peers, such as the Philippines, at6.3 per cent, Indonesia,5.1 per centand Thailand,3.1 per cent.
Việt Nam’s inflation is projected to reach 3.5 per cent in 2025, well within its target range of 3 per cent to 4.5 per cent.
While Việt Nam’s growth prospects remain bright, the broader ASEAN+3 region,a region contributing to over 40 per cent of global growth, is forecast to grow at 4.2 per cent in 2025, consistent with 2024 levels.
However, the Plus-3 economies — China, Japan, and South Korea — face more significant headwinds due to rising trade barriers, particularly the anticipated increase in US tariffs on Chinese goods.The Plus-3 region’s growth is expected to slow to 4.0 per cent, compared to ASEAN’s projected 4.8 per cent.
The impact of escalating trade tensions, particularly between the US and China, remains a critical concern for the region. AMRO forecasts a potential 0.1 percentage point reduction in ASEAN’s growth if higher US tariffs on Chinese imports materialise.
“The global tech upcycle bolstered ASEAN+3’s export performance in 2024, helping to offset weaknesses in domestic consumption in some parts of the region,” said AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor.
“However, rising trade tensions, particularly the imposition of higher US tariffs, could dampen external demand for the region and other parts of the world in the coming year.”
